11/21/23 Update

11/21/23 (GLOBAL) RECESSION macro scenario unfolding for Jan-Feb followed by Stagflation in Mar-Apr, reflation in May-Jun, more stagflation in July, then Goldilocks rally in August followed by more stagflation… Best back tested recession asset classes are: Fixed income, gold, and USD. Worst. Asset classes: Commodities, Equities, Credit, FX. Best backtested recession equity sectors: Consumer staples, Utilities, REITS and healthcare. Worst sectors: energy, tech, industrials, financials. Wild cards include Banking Crisis, Supply Chain Disruption, World War, Fed Hikes, Inflation, Biological Warfare, Cyberwar, Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Depopulation, Possible U.S. currency devaluation, AI and THE MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES. GLOBAL recession macro data. We are 45% T Bill ETFs (BIL and TBIL). 15% physical gold ETFs, 40% mix of consumer staples, utilities, healthcare and communications ETFs. Select energy stocks. Normally we would also be long REITs but not in this banking and mortgage crisis scenario. WARNING: Short term, intermediate, and long term charts are all overbought right now.

11/13/23 Update

11/13/23 RECESSION macro scenario unfolding. Best back tested recession asset classes are: Fixed income, gold, and USD. Best backtested recession equity sectors: Consumer staples, Utilities, REITS and healthcare. Wild cards include Banking Crisis, Supply Chain Disruption, World War, Fed Hikes, Inflation, Biological Warfare, Cyberwar, Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Depopulation, Possible U.S. currency devaluation, AI and THE MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES. GLOBAL recession macro data. We are 50% T Bill ETFs (BIL and TBIL). 15% physical gold ETFs (AAAU, GLD and PHYS), 2% AMZN, 33% mix of XLP, XLU, consumer staples and utilities. Normally we would also be long REITs but not in this case.

11/01/23 Update

10/31/23 Alternating monthly STAGFLATION and RECESSION macro scenarios unfolding. Best backtested stagflation asset classes: Gold and commodities. Best backtested stagflation equity styles: Technology, Industrials, Utilities, Energy, Best back tested recession asset classes are: Fixed income, gold, and USD. Best backtested recession equity sectors are: Consumer staples, Utilities, REITS and healthcare. Wild cards include Banking Crisis, Supply Chain Disruption, World War, Fed Hikes, Inflation, Biological Warfare, Cyberwar, Downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Depopulation, AI and THE MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES. GLOBAL recession macro data – not just U.S. We are approximately 30% 1-3 month T-Bills, 10% gold, 2% silver, 58% special situations, high yield stocks and defensive equities. WE REMAIN VERY DEFENSIVE. Technical Analysis: SPY Ten year chart is NEUTRAL. SPY three year chart is OVERSOLD. SPY One Year Chart is OVERSOLD.

Public Chart List: https://stockcharts.com/public/1819606